Ocean-bound plastic credit spot prices fell to $180 per tonne in the fourth quarter of 2025, according to transaction data compiled by Ecosystem Marketplace, representing a 56 percent decline from the record $412 per tonne recorded in Q2 2025. The price correction reflects a significant increase in certified supply from new project entrants in West Africa and expanded capacity from existing Indonesian and Philippine projects that reached verification completion in Q3 and Q4. Market participants describe the move as a normalisation rather than a structural decline, noting that Q2 2025 prices reflected an exceptional supply squeeze that had built over 18 months of verification backlogs.
Supply and demand dynamics
The supply increase that drove the correction originates primarily from three sources: the entry of ten new West African projects into the Verra PWRS pipeline, completing first verification between July and November 2025; expanded collection capacity at existing Philippines and Indonesian operations following infrastructure investment funded by 2024 corporate offtake agreements; and the first credits issued under Verra's VMR0007 methodology for informal sector projects, which has unlocked participation from smaller coastal collection operations that were previously unable to meet the documentation requirements of the standard VMR0006 process. Demand has also softened slightly relative to the exceptional corporate buying activity that characterised Q1 and Q2 2025, as several large FMCG buyers completed their annual credit retirement cycles and returned to a monitoring-only posture ahead of new budgeting cycles. Analysts at South Pole and Climate Asset Management characterise $160 to $200 per tonne as a structurally sustainable price band for ocean-bound credits at current market scale, providing sufficient project economics to incentivise new supply while remaining accessible to a broad corporate buyer base.
Outlook
The UN Plastics Treaty remains the key upside price catalyst. If INC-5.2 produces a treaty text with mandatory collection targets and supplementarity language accepting credits as a compliance instrument, analysts project a return to $300-plus territory as compliance demand adds a structural floor beneath the current voluntary market pricing.