The climate consultancy Systemiq has projected that the global plastic credits market could reach $4.8 billion in annual transaction value by 2030, representing a six-fold increase from an estimated $800 million transacted in 2024, according to its annual Plastic Credits Market Outlook published in February 2025.
The report, produced in partnership with the Plastic Credit Exchange and informed by interviews with more than 120 market participants, identifies three primary demand drivers: compliance requirements under the European Union's Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR), voluntary corporate plastic neutrality commitments, and the prospective adoption of a legally binding UN plastics treaty that would create national collection and recycling obligations capable of being offset through credits.
Systemiq's central growth scenario assumes treaty adoption at INC-5.2 in 2025 and entry into force by 2028. Under this scenario, FMCG companies account for 42 percent of projected 2030 demand, driven by packaging-intensive supply chains subject to both the PPWR and investor ESG scrutiny. Retail packaging follows at 28 percent, with the electronics sector contributing 15 percent, where ocean-bound plastic has become a signature material in certified product ranges. The remaining 15 percent is distributed across foodservice, agriculture, and industrials.
The risk scenario is materially worse. If treaty negotiations remain deadlocked through 2026, Systemiq estimates the market would be 30 to 40 percent smaller by 2030, as the compliance demand signal that anchors longer-term corporate commitments fails to materialise. Without a credible regulatory backstop, the report states, voluntary demand becomes highly sensitive to short-term ESG budget pressures and executive tenure cycles.
On the supply side, Systemiq identifies a growing pipeline of collection and recycling projects across South and Southeast Asia, principally the Philippines, Indonesia, India, and Vietnam, but warns that verification bottlenecks remain a structural constraint. The report estimates that auditor capacity and Verra and PCX certification throughput can currently process approximately 1.8 million tonnes of verified credits annually, against a projected demand of 5 to 7 million tonnes by 2030 under the central scenario.
The investment implications have not been lost on the private equity and venture capital community. Systemiq notes a marked increase in PE and VC interest in what it terms plastic credit infrastructure, including digital MRV platforms, chain-of-custody tracking software, and third-party verification capacity. Several rounds closed in 2024 at valuations the report describes as carbon-equivalent multiples, a reference to the infrastructure investment surge that accompanied voluntary carbon market growth in 2020 and 2021.
The comparison to the voluntary carbon market is instructive and cautionary in equal measure. Carbon credits, as an asset class, are roughly a decade ahead of plastic credits in terms of market maturity, standard-setting infrastructure, and corporate procurement sophistication. The volatility and reputational damage experienced by the carbon market in 2023, following investigative reporting on additionality failures, has made buyers in the plastic credit market attentive to verification quality from the outset.
Systemiq recommends that corporate buyers adopt a portfolio approach: high-volume, lower-cost mechanical recycling credits for baseline footprint offsetting, supplemented by premium ocean-bound plastic and chemical recycling credits where supply chain storytelling justifies the price differential.